The equipment cycle stayed firmly in gear in July. ACT Research's preliminary tally puts North American Class 8 net orders at 22,100 units, up 68% from July 2025. FTR Transportation Intelligence's count landed in the same place — 22,000 units, a 75% annual gain — and puts year-to-date orders up roughly 120% from the same seven months last year.
The month-over-month picture looks softer at first glance: on a seasonally adjusted basis, orders fell about 30% from June's blowout. But the explanation is the same one that has defined this cycle since spring — there is very little left to buy for 2026 delivery.
Strong Demand, No Slots
June's roughly 31,400-unit order month filled most of what remained of this year's production schedule. By July, fleets placing orders were bumping against full backlogs rather than pulling back on equipment plans.
"Class 8 preliminary orders in July totaled 22,100 units, up 68% y/y on easy comps and improved trucking fundamentals, but down 30% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis," said Carter Vieth, research analyst at ACT Research, pointing to "a lack of 2026 build slots available as orders run up against full Class 8 backlogs."
FTR's read of the month is consistent: replacement demand, firmer freight rates, and improving utilization continue to support the market, along with a moderate pre-buy by fleets looking to stay ahead of new emissions-related costs.
Waiting on the EPA Before 2027 Opens
The next leg of the cycle now hinges on the regulatory calendar. Vieth noted that a "lack of EPA clarity, at least until the end of August" may be delaying some orders, as manufacturers hold off on opening 2027 order boards until compliance requirements for the 2027 model year are final. The EPA proposed revisions to its 2027 heavy-duty rule in July — keeping NOx limits while trimming compliance costs — and the industry is waiting on the final shape of the rule.
When those order boards do open, the fleets first in line will be the ones that already know what they need and how they're paying for it. If the past two order cycles are a guide, early slots go quickly.
Medium-Duty Momentum
The strength isn't limited to heavy trucks. Preliminary Classes 5-7 orders reached 18,300 units in July, up 41% year over year. Seasonally adjusted medium-duty volumes have held above 20,000 units for three consecutive months — a marked improvement from the roughly 16,000-unit pace at the start of 2026 — a sign that vocational and regional-haul buyers are back in the market alongside the big fleets.
What This Means for Fleet Owners
For carriers planning capacity, July's order data sharpens a timeline that has been building all year:
- The new-truck route now runs through 2027. With 2026 build slots essentially gone, a new Class 8 ordered today is a 2027 delivery. Fleets that need trucks working this year are shopping dealer inventory and the used market — where prices have been climbing past $61,000 and sales are beating seasonal trends.
- Be ready when the 2027 boards open. EPA clarity expected by late August is the trigger. Spec decisions and financing arranged in advance turn into confirmed early build slots; waiting until the boards open means joining a longer queue.
- The demand backdrop supports the investment. Orders up 68-75% year over year against tightening capacity and rising freight rates is the profile of an equipment market with staying power, not a one-month spike.
We've seen this pattern in prior cycles: when order boards reopen after a supply-constrained stretch, the carriers who capture the first slots are the ones whose financing was already in place. The window between now and the 2027 order boards opening is the time to get positioned.