Spot rates hold through the August lull as diesel climbs and capacity keeps thinning
DAT's first August print (7-day averages through Aug 1) shows the summer lull leveling off rather than deepening: all-in spot rates were nearly flat at $2.96 per mile for dry van (down a cent), $3.35 for reefer (down two cents), and $3.60 for flatbed (up two cents). Linehaul fell 4-7 cents across equipment types, but climbing diesel pushed fuel surcharges up 6-7 cents and absorbed the difference. Capacity kept leaving: equipment posts dropped 11% in a week and truck posts are down 28% from a year ago, lifting the van load-to-truck ratio to 10.9 — and van spot linehaul runs 66 cents above last year while holding a 7-cent premium over contract. Tender rejections have eased from June's 17.6% peak to roughly 14.9% in late July per SONAR-based market updates — post-holiday normalization at levels still elevated for the season.
Outlook: With 2026 build slots effectively sold out and 2027 order boards waiting on EPA clarity, the equipment a carrier lines up during the lull is what converts fall bid season repricing into revenue — the financing conversation belongs in August, not October.
Data: EIA, DAT, FreightWaves SONAR, ACT, BLS, FMCSA — Employment: 1.467M (-0.1% MoM)
