Quarter-end freight lifts spot rates and tightens capacity as diesel pulls back
DAT's Week 40 print (7-day averages through Oct 3) shows a quarter-end freight push lifting all three equipment types: all-in spot rates rose to $3.13 per mile for dry van (up 11 cents), $3.69 for reefer (up 7 cents), and $3.71 for flatbed (up 11 cents), with van linehaul up 34% year over year. Van loads rose 15% while trucks fell 7%, pushing the van load-to-truck ratio to 13.7 from 11.1 — nearly double the same week last year. Diesel eased for a second straight week to $6.199 a gallon (EIA, week of Oct 5), down from $6.529 on Sept 21, and SONAR-based tender rejections held near 14% (about 13.9% in late September), roughly three times the 2023–2025 range.
Outlook: DAT reads the jump as a quarter-end push rather than a lasting demand shift, but the capacity side keeps tightening — so the carriers positioned to win 2027 bid season are the ones lining up equipment financing now, while spot linehaul runs a third above last year and diesel is coming off its September peak.
Data: EIA, DAT, FreightWaves SONAR, BLS — Employment: 1.473M (+0.2% MoM)
