The clearest quarterly measure yet of the market's turn arrived this week in U.S. Bank's Freight Payment Index, covered by FreightWaves. In the second quarter, the bank's National Shipment Index slipped 1.1% sequentially to 75.1 — down 2.8% from a year ago — while freight spending moved the opposite direction, rising 6.4% sequentially and 28.1% year over year.
Shippers, in short, paid substantially more to move slightly less. After three years in which falling rates let freight budgets shrink, the cost curve has turned — and the driver is the supply side of the market.
Rates, Not Volume, Are Driving the Bill
Average spot rates in the quarter reached $3.02 per mile, up 18.9% from the first quarter, while contract rates averaged $3.06 per mile, up 13%. That puts spot and contract pricing within four cents of each other — effective convergence, and a pattern that historically shows up late in the transition from a shipper's market to a carrier's market, just before contracts broadly reprice.
"Capacity conditions can have a significant impact on freight costs even when underlying demand isn't growing," said U.S. Bank's Bobby Holland.
That is the quarter in one sentence: demand didn't grow — capacity left. Carrier exits, tighter enforcement of driver-qualification rules, and full truck order boards have all worked in the same direction, leaving fewer trucks against a stable freight base.
Fuel Added Cost, but Wasn't the Story
Diesel was volatile across the quarter — roughly $5.64 per gallon in April, easing to about $4.67 by quarter's end — and fuel costs averaged 75 cents per mile, up 47.1% from the first quarter and 78.6% from a year earlier. Even so, the American Trucking Associations' Bob Costello was direct about the attribution: "While higher fuel prices added to transportation costs, fuel was not the primary force behind the increase in shipper spending."
Fuel has since swung back up — the EIA's national diesel average sat at $5.35 in early August — which keeps surcharge programs earning their keep, but the structural cost pressure on shippers remains rate, not fuel.
The Southwest Shows the Pattern in Sharp Relief
Regionally, the Southwest illustrated the squeeze most clearly: shipments fell 0.6% sequentially and 20.2% year over year, while spending rose 11.2% sequentially and 39.9% year over year. Where capacity is thinnest, the repricing is steepest — a preview of how unevenly the new market can treat lanes and regions.
What This Means for Fleet Owners
Quarterly payment data is the confirmation layer on top of the weekly rate signals, and this quarter's confirms the trend has legs:
- Pricing power has changed hands. A 28% year-over-year rise in freight spending against falling volumes is capacity doing the work. Carriers running well-maintained equipment in tight lanes are quoting from strength for the first time in years.
- Fall bid season is the payoff window. Spot-contract convergence is the setup; the repricing happens when contracts renew. Fleets that can commit reliable capacity — trucks, drivers, and service history — will capture the best of the new contract rates.
- Costs still decide who keeps the gains. With fuel swinging between $4.67 and $5.64 in a single quarter, surcharge discipline and fuel-efficient equipment determine how much of the rate improvement reaches the bottom line.
We've seen this sequence before: spending indices turn first, contract rates follow, and the carriers who benefit most are the ones whose capacity was ready before bid season opened. With equipment supply constrained into 2027, arranging trucks and financing now is how a fleet shows up to fall negotiations as the reliable capacity shippers are suddenly paying up for.