Freight rates can improve even when the industry is hauling less weight. August’s reports show why fleet owners need to look at pricing and freight volume separately.
The American Trucking Associations’ advance seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index fell 0.5% to 112.7 in August. Tonnage was 1.6% below August 2025 and 4.3% below its March peak. It remained up 1% year to date, reflecting stronger activity earlier in the year.
ATA chief economist Bob Costello attributed the improvement in trucking conditions to the supply of available capacity:
“The truck market has certainly flipped this year, but recent tonnage levels confirm this is due to reduced capacity, not robust demand.” — Bob Costello, ATA
His reading is that fewer available trucks are supporting the market despite softer tonnage. For an individual carrier, that can create better pricing opportunities without necessarily providing enough additional loads to keep another truck busy.
The Volume Measures Tell Different Stories
There was some improvement elsewhere. Cass reported August shipments up 2.1% year over year and 5.6% from July, according to FreightWaves’ September 14 coverage. That was the first annual increase after 42 months of declines.
The measures cover different things. ATA tracks tonnage reported by its members and says the index is dominated by contract freight. Cass counts shipments from the freight bills it processes across domestic transportation modes. Changes in shipment counts and freight weight need not move together.
Read together, the reports suggest an uneven demand picture. Cass’s improvement is encouraging, while ATA’s result shows that freight volume has yet to strengthen across every measure.
Higher Rates Need to Become Better Margins
Cass’s truckload linehaul index rose 11.3% year over year in August. It excludes fuel and accessorial surcharges and is heavily weighted toward contract freight. That makes it useful evidence of pricing improvement beyond short-term spot movements.
A fleet still needs to see how that improvement reaches its own books. Review revenue alongside loaded miles, empty miles, detention and operating expenses. Rate increases are most useful when trucks stay productive and the additional revenue exceeds the additional cost of earning it.
What This Means for Fleet Owners
- Identify freight you are turning away. Before expanding, establish whether missed loads are recurring, whether customers will commit to them, and whether a driver is available to cover the work.
- Review existing truck utilization. Separate time lost to repairs from time lost waiting for freight. Each points to a different operational decision.
- Use renewal discussions to improve the whole account. Review rates together with fuel terms, detention, appointment reliability and expected volume.
A replacement may help recover revenue lost to downtime. An additional truck needs a credible source of additional work. Put those two cases into separate equipment budgets and financing discussions so the strength of one does not obscure the assumptions in the other.